Protecting progress that has already been made in Somalia’s post-conflict transition should be the main priority of the upcoming electoral process. Significantly, Somalis have already achieved agreement on the main aspects of the process through intensive dialogue, which represents a major hurdle that has been negotiated. As well as this, the elections can also help to further expand participation and representation in Somalia’s political structures, which would be another step forward—albeit small—in Somalia’s post-conflict trajectory.
These successes are not yet guaranteed. The process comes at the tail-end of a period of heightened political tensions in Somalia, between the FGS and some federal member states, notably Jubaland and Puntland, as well as between the FGS and opposition politicians. The agreement struck in September is fragile, and, in the absence of trust, the contentious issues outlined above may derail the process. There is a high chance that the elections become protracted and contested, increasing the likelihood that the result is disputed.
These are worst-case scenarios and are avoidable if the spirit of consensus reached in September amongst the Somali political leadership can be revitalized and deepened. Constant political dialogue between Somali leaders from different sides of the spectrum on the issues outlined here is essential to build trust, relationships and channels of communication that can be the basis for a credible process, and mediation of political differences. This might take place in the form of a monthly meeting of political leaders whilst the election campaign is underway, as well as regular meetings or conference calls between technical advisors from the different groups.
In la ilaaliyo horumarkii horay loogu sameeyay marxaladda isbeddelka doorashada ee Soomaaliya waa in uu noqdaa mudnaanta koowaad ee hannaanka doorashooyinka soo socda. Muhiimad ahaan, Soomaalidu waxay hore heshiis uga gaareen arrimaha ugu muhiimsan ee geeddi-socodka doorashada iyadoo loo marayo wadahadal. Sidoo kale, doorashadu waxay kaloo gacan ka gaysan kartaa sii ballaarinta ka-qaybgalka iyo metelaadda siyaasadeed ee Soomaaliya, taasoo noqon doonta tallaabo kale oo horey loo qaado – in kasta oo ay yar tahay.
Guulahaan weli lama damaanad qaadin. Hannaanka doorashada ayaa kusoo aadaya dabayaaqada xilli ay ka jiraan Soomaaliya xiisado siyaasadeed oo xoogeystay ee u dhexeeya dowladda federaalka iyo qaar ka mid ah dowladaha xubnaha ka ah dowladda federaalka, gaar ahaan Jubaland iyo Puntland, iyo sidoo kale khilaaf u dhexeeya dowladda federaalka iyo siyaasiyiinta mucaaradka. Heshiiskii la gaaray bishii Sebteember waa mid nugul, maadaama aanu kalsooni badan heysanin, arrimaha lagu muransan yahay ee kor ku xusan ayaana carqaladeyn kara hannaanka doorashada. Waxaa jirta ifafaalo ah in doorashooyinka ay noqdaan kuwo daba dheeraada, taasoo kordhinaysa suuragalnimada in natiijada doorashadu noqoto mid lagu murmo.
Kuwani waa xaaladaha ugu xun ee dhici kara waana kuwo laga fogaan karo haddii dareenka adag ee heshiiskii la gaarey bishii Sebteambar ee u dhexeeyey hoggaamiyaasha siyaasadda ee Soomaaliya dib loosoo nooleyn karo lanasii ballaarin karo. Wadahadal siyaasadeed oo joogta ah oo u dhexeeya madaxda Soomaalida ee ka kala socda dhinacyada kala duwan ee arrimaha halkan lagu xusey ayaa lagama maarmaan u ah dhismaha kalsooni, xiriiro iyo wadiiqooyin isgaarsiineed oo gundhig u noqon kara hannaan lagu kalsoonaan karo, iyo dhexdhexaadinta khilaafaadka iyo kala duwanaanshaha siyaasadeed. Tani waxa ay u dhici kartaa qaab kulan bille ah oo u dhexeeya hoggaamiyaasha siyaasadda inta ololaha doorashada uu socdo, iyo sidoo kale shirar caadiga ah ee u dhexeeya lataliyeyaasha farsamada ee siyaasiyiinta kala duwan.