This policy paper analyzes the potential Israeli interests behind the recognition of Somaliland, factors that purportedly led Somaliland to support this initiative, and examines implications for Somaliland, Somalia, and beyond.
Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland is primarily driven by its strategic interests in the Red Sea, including containing the Houthis threat, countering Türkiye’s expanding influence in Somalia, and mitigating its growing diplomatic isolation.
For Somaliland, the move reflects diminishing prospects for international recognition, internal polarization following the 2023 defeat in Las Anod, and concern over the improving international standing of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).
While the recognition offers symbolic validation for Somaliland’s leadership, it carries several risks: it might disrupt Somaliland internally, intensify tensions with Somalia, and exacerbate insecurity across the Horn of Africa by inviting proxy competition and militant retaliation.
For Somalia, the development undermines sovereignty, distracts from efforts to establish security, and deepens political polarization ahead of the 2026 political transition.
The Federal Government should prioritize domestic unity and inclusive engagement. At the same time, it should pursue pragmatic dialogue with Somaliland’s leaders while carefully balancing external diplomatic efforts with urgent internal priorities, including security and the political transition.
Red Sea Geopolitics and Secession: Policy Implications of Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland
Policy-Implications-of-Israel-Recognition-of-Somaliland-SPA_Policy_Paper_12_2026_ENGLISH
SPA Deputy Director & SPA Research Director
SPA Policy Lab Director
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Somali Public Agenda is a non-profit public policy and administration research organization based in Mogadishu. Its aim is to advance understanding and improvement of public administration and public services in Somalia through evidence-based research and analysis.
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Absolutely the domestic unity and somalilands dialogue are very important.