Somalia faces a deepening political impasse over the forthcoming federal elections. Disagreements between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and opposition groupings centre on the electoral model, the role of political parties, election management, and the legitimacy of the broader political process. Despite several rounds of negotiations and international facilitation, these differences remain unresolved, contributing to political instability, weakening confidence in electoral institutions and increasing the risk of further political violence. This paper examines the positions of the four principal negotiating actors: the FGS, the Somali Future Council, Nabad iyo Nolol, and the Somali Unity Council, and identifies opportunities for building consensus around a credible and feasible electoral framework.

The paper identifies three interconnected areas requiring compromise:

• On electoral design, it proposes three potential options: an open-list proportional representation model with smaller constituencies; a first-past-the-post model allowing both independent and party-affiliated candidates to compete; or a closed-list proportional representation model based on a single national constituency, subject to inclusive participation and credible election management.
• On political parties, it recommends retaining their role in the electoral process while addressing concerns about incumbent advantage through reforms to the political associations and parties framework, reopening registration and introducing a 7% parliamentary seat threshold for recognition as national parties. A political party fund could also help address disparities in electoral resources.
• Election management is likely to be the most challenging area of negotiation. The paper proposes retaining the existing 18-member National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission structure while revisiting its mandate and composition to ensure representation of the FGS, Federal Member States and opposition groupings. Reassessment of voter registration arrangements, transparent procurement and independent international scrutiny of voter registration could help rebuild confidence in the commission and the electoral process.