February 16, 2023
February 16, 2023
Unstable dynamics have rendered the Hirshabelle state government dysfunctional, hindering any prospect of development and good governance. Such dynamics arise from the absence of a sustainable and inclusive political settlement in the state—that is, a shared understanding of and commitment to the exercise of power, in which political actors share a basic agreement on which institutions hold what power, and how these powers can be peacefully contested. While it is clear that Hirshabelle’s political actors remain deeply divided over such questions, the new military campaigns ongoing in the state, once concluded, may create an opportunity to establish stronger political fundamentals. This policy brief, based on extensive empirical research, therefore provides an overview of the contentious issues at play before outlining a possible framework for transforming of the political settlement.
Xaalado siyaasadeed ayaa dowlad-goboleedka Hirshabeelle ka dhigay mid aan shaqeyn, waxayna caqabad ku noqdeen in horumar iyo dowlad wanaag laga sameeyo Hirshabeelle. Xaaladahan waxay ka dhasheen maadaama aanu jirin heshiis siyaasadeed oo loo dhanyahay —taasoo ah, in jilayaasha siyaasaddu aanay heshiis ku ahayn awoodaha muhiimka ah ee dowlad-goboleedka, iyo qaabka awoodahan si nabad ah loogu tartami karo. Inkastoo ay caddahay in jilayaasha siyaasadda Hirshabeelle ay si weyn ugu kala qeybsan yihiin su’aalahan, haddana, haddii lasoo gebagabeeyo ololaha dagaal ee ka socda dowlad-goboleedka, waxaa laga yaabaa in ay abuuraaan fursad lagu aasaaso heshiis siyaasadeed oo xooggan. Faalladan kooban, oo ku saleysan cilmibaaris ballaaran, waxa ay dulmar guud ku sameyneysaa arrimaha la isku hayo waxa ay sidoo kale soo jeedineysaa qaababka suuragalka ah ee lagu gaari karo heshiis siyaasadeed.